Repeat testing is essential when estimating chronic kidney disease prevalence and associated cardiovascular risk

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Abstract

Background: Investigations into chronic kidney disease (CKD) and cardiovascular disease in the CKD population may be misleading as they are often based on a single test of kidney function.

Aim: To determine whether repeat testing at 3 months to confirm a diagnosis of CKD impacts on the estimated prevalence of CKD and the estimated 10-year general cardiovascular risk of the CKD population.

Design and methods: Blood and urine samples from presumed healthy volunteers were analysed for evidence of CKD on recruitment and again 3 months later. Estimated 10-year cardiovascular risk was calculated using criteria determined by the Framingham study. Preliminary study: 512 volunteers were screened for CKD. Of the initial results, 206 indicated CKD or eGFR within one standard deviation of abnormal, and 142 (69%) of these were retested. Validation study: 528 volunteers were recruited and invited to return for repeat testing. A total of 214 (40.5%) participants provided repeat samples.

Results: A single test indicating CKD had a positive predictive value of 0.5 (preliminary) and 0.39 (validation) for repeat abnormalities 3 months later. Participants with CKD confirmed on repeat testing had a significant increase in estimated 10-year cardiovascular risk over the population as a whole (preliminary: 16.5 vs. 11.9%, P < 0.05; validation: 18.1 vs. 9.2%, P < 0.01). Participants with a solitary test indicating CKD had no elevation in cardiovascular risk.

Conclusions: Repeat testing for CKD after 3 months significantly reduces the estimated prevalence of disease and identifies a population with true CKD and a cardiovascular risk significantly in excess of the general population.

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