Atmospheric blocking as a traffic jam in the jet stream

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Abstract

Atmospheric blocking due to anomalous, persistent meandering of the jet stream often causes weather extremes in the mid-latitudes. Despite the ubiquity of blocking, the onset mechanism is not well understood. Here we demonstrate a close analogy between blocking and traffic congestion on a highway by using meteorological data and show that blocking and traffic congestion can be described by a common mathematical theory. The theory predicts that the jet stream has a capacity for the flux of wave activity (a measure of meandering), just as the highway has traffic capacity, and when the capacity is exceeded, blocking manifests as congestion. Stationary waves modulate the jet stream’s capacity for transient waves and localize block formation. Climate change likely affects blocking frequency by modifying the jet stream’s proximity to capacity.

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