Utility of a Simplified Predictive Model to Predict Rebleeding in Patients With High-risk Stigmata Ulcers


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Abstract

AimTo evaluate a simplified Predictive Model (sPM) to predict rebleeding in patients with high-risk stigmata ulcers.Patients and MethodsRetrospectively, patients seen from March 2002 to September 2007 with peptic ulcers Forrest Ia, Ib, IIa and/or IIb were included. A sPM based on modified Blatchford Score Risk System (mBRS) was used.ResultsOne hundred and seven patients were included. The positive and negative predictive values for rebleeding with mBRS ≤1 were 15% [95% confidence interval (CI): 4-42] and 72% (95% CI: 61-80), respectively; for sPM ≤1 these values were 16% (95% CI: 8-29) and 65.3% (95% CI: 52-76), respectively. The odds ratio for rebleeding in patients with sPM ≤1 was 0.77 (95% CI: 0.6-0.97, P=0.03) and odds ratio for mBRS ≤1 was 0.84 (95% CI: 0.64-1.1, P=0.3).ConclusionsIn patients with high-risk stigmata ulcers with sPM and mBRS ≤1 the risk of rebleeding is low and their early discharge could be considered.

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