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Aerobic capacity is essential for physical function. The aims of this study were to identify the peak oxygen consumption (O2 peak) and the incremental shuttle walk test (ISWT) distance associated with disability and to develop an equation to predict O2 peak, based on the ISWT distance. Fifteen disabled and 13 nondisabled older adults performed the ISWT using a portable telemetric gas analyzer. The O2 peak and the distance associated with disability were 15.8 mL/kg/min or less and 230 m or less, respectively. The coefficient of determination from the predictive model was 0.54. The ISWT might be considered to assess aerobic capacity in older adults.