Predicting the future prevalence of cigarette smoking in Australia: how low can we go and by when?

    loading  Checking for direct PDF access through Ovid

Abstract

Background:

In Australia, smoking prevalence has declined in men since the 1950s and in women since the 1980s. Future smoking prevalence in Australia is predicted from estimates of previous and current age-specific and sex-specific cessation rates and smoking uptake in young people derived from national survey data on the prevalence of smoking between 1980 and 2007.

Methods:

A dynamic forecasting model was used to estimate future smoking prevalence in the Australian population based on a continuation of these current trends in smoking uptake and cessation.

Results:

The results suggest that Australia’s smoking prevalence will continue to fall while current rates of initiation and cessation are maintained. But a continuation of current smoking cessation and initiation patterns will see around 14% of adults still smoking in 2020.

Conclusions:

Smoking cessation rates will need to double for Australian smoking prevalence to reach a policy target of 10% by 2020.

Related Topics

    loading  Loading Related Articles