More Than Just Wait Time? Regional Differences in Liver Transplant Outcomes for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

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Abstract

Background

Regional allocation of deceased donor livers has led to variable wait times for HCC patients on the liver transplant list. The purpose of our study was to evaluate how regional differences in wait time affect outcomes for HCC patients.

Methods

A retrospective, observational study was performed using the OPTN database from 2/27/2002 to 9/25/2015. The cumulative incidences of transplant and waitlist death as well as intention-to-treat and posttransplant survival were evaluated for patients ≥ 18 years of age listed for DDLT with stage II HCC exception points in each UNOS region. A multivariable analysis of predictive factors for posttransplant survival was performed.

Results

Cumulative incidence of transplant decreased and cumulative incidence of waitlist death increased as regional wait time increased. Intention-to-treat survival decreased with increased regional wait time with long wait time regions 1, 5, and 9 having significantly lower intention-to-treat survival compared to many of the shorter wait time regions (p<0.05). Wait time did not predict posttransplant survival. Significant predictive factors of posttransplant survival included AFP, size of the largest tumor, number of tumors, age of the recipient, laboratory MELD, DRI, time period of transplantation, and region (p<0.05).

Conclusion

Wait time inequality affects waitlist mortality and intention-to-treat survival but does not affect posttransplant survival. Posttransplant survival is predicted by tumor biology, graft quality, recipient age, underlying liver function, and region. Regional environments of HCC care seem to drive posttransplant survival.

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