CRITICAL LOADS OF ACIDITY FOR SURFACE WATERS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ONTARIO, CANADA: REGIONAL APPLICATION OF THE FIRST-ORDER ACIDITY BALANCE (FAB) MODEL

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Abstract

Major sulphur emission control programs have been implemented in North America, resulting in current emissions being ∼30% less than those in 1980. However, the level of acidic deposition remaining is still unlikely to promote widespread recovery of aquatic ecosystems. The First-order Acidity Balance (FAB) model has been applied to south-central Ontario (285 lakes in the Muskoka River Catchment) to evaluate the need for further reductions in emissions. As a result of the past decline in deposition, the proportion of lakes with critical loads exceedance has dropped substantially; however, further reductions in sulphur and nitrogen emissions are required to eliminate critical loads exceedance. Based on bulk deposition of sulphate and nitrogen (41.1 mmolc m−2yr−1and 62.5 mmolc m−2yr−1, respectively) for the period 1995–1999, 166 lakes (58.3%) exceed critical loads. Even with full implementation of SO2 abatement programs in Canada (achieved in 1994) and the United States (legislated for 2010), critical loads will be exceeded in a large proportion (46.6%) of the study lakes.

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