PROJECTING REGIONAL PATTERNS OF FUTURE SOIL CHEMISTRY STATUS IN SWEDISH FORESTS USING SAFE

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Abstract

As part of the Abatement Strategies for Transboundary Air Pollution (ASTA) research program, the dynamic soil chemistry model SAFE was used to make hindcasts and future projections of soil solution chemistry for 645 Swedish forest soils between 1800 and 2100. The data needed were derived from different databases of different spatial resolution ranging from site-specific measurements of soil and stand characteristics from the Swedish Forest Inventory to species-specific nutrient content ranges based on literature surveys. The time-series of nutrient uptake and atmospheric deposition needed were created using the MAKEDEP model and the future scenarios were based on the 1999 Gothenburg protocol. The version of MAKEDEP used included nutrient content elasticity, and the modelled biomass nutrient content thus varies between regions as well as over time. The results were analysed by dividing the sites into three different regions (southwest, central and north) as well as nationally. It was shown that acidification remains a severe environmental problem in the southwest region even after implementation of the 1999 Gothenburg protocol, whereas in the north the problem is far less pronounced.

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